Some fantasy baseball team owners have an appetite for loading up on Cleveland Indians. If you’re an avid Tribe fan, you’ll obviously covet players like Francisco Lindor, José Ramirez, Shane Bieber or Mike Clevinger.
These four can justifiably fill key lineup spots on any fantasy baseball squad. However, we want to look deeper into the 2020 Cleveland lineup. Our search is for sleeper players that a Cleveland Indians fan might draft; sneaky picks that could boost their fantasy team productivity.
Here’s a pair of young Indians who we think have a chance to outplay their projections in 2020. They’re a pair of young stars who could turn into flashy feathers for your fantasy avatar’s tribal headdress.
Óscar Mercado
Nearly every projection has Mercado getting over 500 shots in the box for Cleveland in 2020. This should be around 100 more than he got last year after is May call up to the big club.
Most of the fantasy projections for the 25-year-old centerfielder mirror last season’s productivity. Even as a casual Tribe fan, we’re not necessarily buying he’ll continue the status quo. Let’s peek back at his numbers prior to his first professional appearance.
One key stat that seems to be overlooked is stolen bases. Mercado is penciled as the second bat in the Cleveland order. He’ll be sandwiched between Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana. Logically, this could evolve into a nice runs scored production.
Most projections have him hovering right around 90 trips across the plate in 2020. His batting average seems relegated to its seven-year collective totals. At all levels during his professional and minor league career, Mercado has hit .257.
However, some might forget that one of his worst showings with the bat came during the minor league season where he changed positions. And we’re not talking about moving from one station in the outfield to another.
While with the Cardinals organization, Mercado shifted from shortstop to the outfield. Any baseball player with such experience will know this can be a rather trying positional switch. Just ask Jason Kipnis.
It was during this 2016 minor league season in Palm Beach that Mercado hit a woeful .215 in 506 plate appearances. Now, let’s look at one very interesting stat from that same season.
Even though average was nearly 60-points lower than the worst BA of his young professional career, Mercado managed to pilfer 33 bases. No one seemed too surprised in the St. Louis hierarchy, since he swiped 50 the previous season, and then followed that up with another 38 at Springfield in 2017.
In 2018, the season St. Louis traded him to Cleveland, Mercado stole another 37 collectively between two AAA stops. His .294 batting average and another 14 steals in the first month of games for the Columbus Clippers helped trigger his call up to Cleveland.
Somewhere in the algorithmic sequence of calculating Óscar Mercado’s 2020 projections, we sense 2016 holds too much weight. You erase that single season where he was negotiating the difference between fielding grounders off the clay or chasing down fly balls out of the air, and Mercado’s career BA pushes easily up past .280.
Improved contact will definitely benefit a guy who also runs very well. It will also mean he is going to be on base more than some might envision. If this turns out to be the case, the 25 to 30 projected stolen bases may be underestimated.
Plus, he is targeted for double-digit home runs. Yeah, you know the next step in that statistical sequence. Players who can hit for a respectable average, score and drive in runs, plus push the 20-30 club for homers and steals, are valuable fantasy commodities.
We’re not saying Óscar Mercado will stroke the ball at a .300 clip, or press for 50 stolen bases. However, Whit Merrifield is projected to hit around .290 with 16 dingers and 25 steals.
Merrifield was an all-star in 2019 at second base. Nearly every projection has him easily within the top-10 at his position. Don’t sell short on Óscar Mercado as a solid fantasy outfielder and a potential sleeper on your Tribe-stacked fantasy team.
Aaron Civale
There are some algorithms that put both Bieber and Clevenger in a projected top-10 list of all starting pitchers. Well, digging into the 2019 numbers, albeit Civale only started 10 games, he posted a better ERA than either.
He allowed only 44 hits in 57-plus innings and whiffed 46. Sure, not as impressive as a K or more per inning that Clevinger and Bieber boast, but Civale did avoid bats. The 16 free passes he issued may pose a problem, but his core numbers spread over multiple starts were solid.
Now, that is where his fantasy outlook may present a problem. Most projections envision him getting upwards of 75 to 100 innings. Now is where the composite numbers get kind of wacky. There are projections as high as 148 innings with nine wins on the season.
Looking backwards, Civale tossed 114 innings his final season at Northeastern, plus another 37-plus at Mahoning Valley, his first pro-level experience. He tossed another 164 the following year in 2017.
There were a few bumps at AA Akron in 2018, but Civale still maintained a sup-4.00 ERA in 106-plus innings spread across 21 starts. Civale has made 28, 27, 21 and 23 starts over his last four seasons as a starting pitcher.
We have to scratch our heads at numbers that are based on anything less than 20 starts for the Tribe in 2020. He is the fourth pitcher in the rotation, a pitching perk which will lend itself to better matchups as well.
Aaron Civale isn’t on any standard format radar as a fantasy draft day projections. In all likelihood, he is going to be available off waivers. If you’re looking for a starting pitcher who could buck the projections, and he needs to be an Indian, Aaron Civale might be a nice sleeper.
Building a fantasy baseball lineup stacked with Cleveland Indians has been easy in recent years. However, in 2020 Tribe fans may have to be a little more creative. There are still top-tier players like Lindor and Ramirez. However, if you can pinpoint the potential sleepers hidden inside the Indians’ lineup, you may be on the warpath to your league title.