2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Sweet 16
Bracketology – Division III Style
Friday, March 11, 2022
After Friday’s Eight “DIII Sweet 16” Games Are Over,
What Might Saturday’s “Elite 8” Look Like?
March 10, 2022 by C. Jay Prescher
The Marietta College Pioneers men’s basketball team earned the right to host one of four 2022 NCAA Division III Men’s Basketball Championship “Sweet 16 Brackets”. Rightfully, Pioneers’ fans are focused on the Oswego State Lakers.
However, there are seven other games set to tip-off on Friday. One of the early games will be played on Fenton Court at Ban Johnson Arena. The Christopher Newport University Captains will battle the Stockton University Ospreys. The CNU/Stockton winner will play the winner of the Pioneers/Lakers game in Saturday’s Sectional Final at “The BanJo”.
But what does the rest of the 16-team field look like, and how might Friday night unfold?
Sixteen Division III basketball teams, and all their fans, have their eyes on a trip to the “Hoosier State”. Eight of these teams will survive past Friday night. They will pair off for four Elite 8 games on Saturday. The games on Saturday will be have the highest stakes of any game these teams have played all season. They will determine which four schools make preparations for a trip to Fort Wayne, Indiana.
At Allen County War Memorial Coliseum, the Elite 8 survivors will be in the NCAA Division III “Final Four”. They will battle next weekend for the ultimate prize in small college basketball, an NCAA Championship Banner! Here’s a snapshot of the “Sweet 16” bracket, plus a prediction for which eight teams might have the strongest chance to advance to the “Elite 8”.
Tickets for “Sweet 16” games at Ban Johnson Arena can be purchased through the Marietta College Online Ticket Platform.
Who Survives the Sweet 16 to Advance to the Elite 8?
Let’s start in the top right-hand corner of the overall bracket. This where the Marietta College Pioneers hope to emerge for the school’s first-ever Final Four berth. Two of the current longest winning streaks in the country are playing in this foursome. The Marietta College Pioneers have reeled off 25 in a row. Christopher Newport has knocked off 23 consecutive opponents.
Neither the Pioneers nor the Captains have lost a basketball game since November. They’ve also spent most of the season near the top of the D3Hoops.com top-25. But Oswego State and Stockton University may have other plans. The Lakers and Ospreys have lofty ambitions of their own. Friday’s two Sweet 16 match-ups in this bracket are intriguing. Oswego State is one of the best defensive teams in Division III basketball. The Marietta College Pioneers are one of the best scoring offenses in the nation.
Stockton is a prolific three-point shooting team. When they’re hot, the Ospreys can be deadly. If they’re not, it can spell trouble. But the Captains have the 8th best scoring margin in the country at 16 points per game. As well, Christopher Newport has a long and storied NCAA tournament history. CNU has been to two Final Fours since 2016.
Overall, comparing all four brackets, this is probably the strongest. If Marietta and Christopher Newport can play up to their capabilities, they’re the two better teams. Saturday night’s first Elite 8 tip-off should be a November rematch. Stockton just doesn’t have enough weapons to beat the Captains, and Marietta’s depth will prevail against the Lakers.
Elite 8 game in Marietta, Ohio? Pioneers vs. Captains in a rematch.
Now, let’s drop to the right-hand portion of the bracket. The team that wins this sectional will be the one who plays the winner from Marietta’s bracket in the Final Four. This four-team bracket is being hosted at Randolph-Macon College. The Yellow Jackets are currently the #1 ranked team in the country.
They have been virtually all season. Randolph-Macon was the preseason #1, but dropped for a brief period. They retook the top spot in week #4 and never relinquished it. Oddly enough, the last time Randolph-Macon lost in 2021-2022 was in overtime to Christopher Newport. That game was in November. Eight days prior to the Yellow Jackets’ only 2021-2022 loss, they beat Marietta at Ban Johnson Arena.
Three teams in the right-hand half of the 2022 NCAA DII bracket are familiar with one another. There’s a good chance that two of them will see each other again in Fort Wayne. Randolph-Macon is on a 23-game winning streak. We just don’t see an unranked UMass Dartmouth team having enough weapons to pull off what would probably be Friday’s biggest upset.
If R-MC advances, which they should easily, the Yellow Jackets will play the “Engineers”. That’s one thing we can guarantee. Friday’s first game at Crenshaw Gymnasium is between two polytechnic institutions, both the Engineers. WPI and RPI are ranked #1 and #4 in the nation for best scoring defense. We don’t expect a lot of points in this one. WPI last lost in late January. They’ve been on somewhat of a roll since. RPI was beaten in the Liberty League tournament final just a couple of weeks ago.
The winner in the “battle of the Engineers” will be whichever offense can overcome the other’s stout defense. For their efforts, the winner instantly becomes “Cinderella”. The WPI/RPI winner will try to unseat the best DIII team in the land. Regardless of which Engineer survives on Friday, we don’t see that happening. Based on current momentum, we’re leaning towards WPI over RPI. It will be a close, low-scoring battle. Then, on Saturday in Virginia, the “defense wins championships” theory will be put to the test.
Elite 8 game in Ashland, Virginia? Yellow Jackets vs. Engineers – the WPI version.
Moving to the other half of the bracket, the top left, there are possibly two teams with “an ax to grind”. Mary Hardin-Baylor lost the geographical debate as a Sweet 16 host site. The Elmhurst University campus in Illinois was nixed because of a possible reluctance to award one conference two host sites. Like many Sweet 16 teams, Elmhurst has played one of the more difficult schedules in Division III.
Part of the reason, is the tough College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW) conference schedule. Three teams from the CCIW remain in the Sweet 16. The Blue Jays actually finished third in the final CCIW regular season standings. But Elmhurst beat North Central Illinois to win the conference tournament. That same NCI Cardinals team knocked out the #1 seed, Illinois Wesleyan. More about Illinois Wesleyan later.
But why would that matter in the NCAA’s host site decisions? For whatever reason, it did. Illinois Wesleyan is the host site in one Sweet 16 bracket, not Elmhurst. Ouch. Most likely, Wisconsin-Oshkosh would have been the host location in this sectional. But the Titans were upset by Case Western Reserve University in the second round. Therefore, this Sweet 16 is being played in Cleveland, Ohio.
That brings us to Mary Hardin-Baylor. The Crusaders are ranked #6 in the country. However, the NCAA must have soured on the idea of busing three Midwest schools all the way to Texas. After knocking off the probable host school, Case Western is the beneficiary. The fourth team in this Sweet 16 bracket is the true 2022 Cinderella.
There’s some history in the Calvin/Elmhurst game on Friday. The Blue Jays are looking for a little revenge. On December 1, Calvin jumped out to a 17-point lead and held on to defeat Elmhurst 75-57. It was the only non-conference loss for Elmhurst. We think the Blue Jays get their revenge. In the nightcap at Case Western, the Spartans host Mary Hardin-Baylor. Mary Hardin hasn’t lost since January 13, to East Texas Baptist.
The Crusaders are good. Mary Hardin-Baylor is the 9th best scoring team in Division III. In an eye test, Case Western didn’t overwhelm their two OAC teams, John Carroll and Otterbein. Of all the teams who would qualify as “who’s not hot”, it would be CWRU. The Spartans have split their last eight games, going 4-4.
But the last three wins earned them home court advantage on Friday night. Home court could be enough to make the CWRU/Mary Hardin game a potential upset. It’ll be close, but we don’t think so. The Crusaders’ talent overcomes the crowd noise. Elmhurst sends Cinderella home without her slipper. Two teams with an ax to grind face off on Saturday night.
Elite 8 game in Cleveland, Ohio? Crusaders vs. Blue Jays grind their axes on a neutral court.
The final Sweet 16 bracket is the bottom left-hand quarter. Illinois Wesleyan is the host site. Games will be played on the Titans’ home court, the Shirk Center. This bracket has two CCIW teams who will face each other in the second game. Illinois Wesleyan and the Wheaton Thunder split during the regular season, each winning on the other team’s home court. Friday’s game is at the Shirk Center. That should provide the Titans with a slight advantage, enough to win what should be an extremely close game.
The Friday night opener in Bloomington matches two more top-25 ranked teams. Williams plays Wabash starting at 5:30 pm. Williams was on a nice roll through January. But then the Ephs had four straight games either postponed or canceled. At (19-4), Williams has the smallest resume left in the tournament. Wabash doesn’t. The Little Giants have won 26 out of 29 games.
One of those losses was to Marietta at Ban Johnson Arena. Wabash hasn’t lost since a 2-point defeat to Oberlin on December 4. The Little Giants meet the criteria of “who’s hot”. Wabash has come through in two extremely close tournament games as well, a pair of one-point victories against Wooster and Emory. In the middle, they sandwiched a 12-point win over a previously twice-beaten Berry team.
Like Calvin and UMass Dartmouth, Williams’ making the Elite 8 would qualify as a “Cinderella”. But Wabash is the fifth best scoring team in the country. The Little Giants have too many guns for the Ephs to overcome. Look for the “Little Giants” to get the chance to be “Giant Killers” against the Titans on Saturday night.
Elite 8 game in Bloomington, Illinois? Little Giants will face a titan challenge against the Titans.
Eight teams will advance to play in four Saturday night sectional finals, the “Elite 8”. Not that we’re biased, but one of those four games will involve the Marietta College Pioneers. In a rematch from early in the 2021-2022 season, the Pioneers will face off against the Christopher Newport Captains, this time at “The BanJo”.
Randolph-Macon has been the class of DIII basketball all season. There seems to be no reason why the Yellow Jackets should not host one of the four Elite 8 games. R-MC is too good. We’ll go out on a limb and say WPI scores a point or two more than RPI and wins the “battle of the Engineers” to advance.
Mary Hardin-Baylor and Elmhurst are the two better teams in their bracket. Both opponents, Case Western and Calvin, are underdogs. But the Blue Jays and Crusaders should be wary. Despite them having the home court edge, the Crusaders beat the Spartans. In the other Cleveland, Ohio game, the Blue Jays fly past the Knights and end one Cinderella’s dream.
In the final four-team Sweet 16 bracket, two CCIW teams meet in a rubber match. Illinois Wesleyan is just a notch better than Wheaton, but barely. The Titans should prevail. If the Wabash Little Giants continue to blow up the scoreboard, we think they’ll eventually pull away from the Ephs.
On Saturday morning, eight NCAA Division III basketball teams will wake up with at least one more basketball game to play in 2021-2022. Each will remain on course towards an ultimate goal. Friday night, “Ashes will Fall, and from those Ashes, Legends will Rise”.
The Word Jester is not employed by Marietta College, and is not affiliated with the Ohio Athletic Conference or D3 Hoops.com
The opinions expressed in this article are the exclusive viewpoints of the author.
They do not reflect the points of view, policies, or principles of any outside agency or organization.
