2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship “Sweet 16“
Marietta College Pioneers vs. Oswego State Lakers
Friday – March 11 – 7:00 pm
Fenton Court at Ban Johnson Arena
How the Pioneers Can Advance
March 10, 2022 by C. Jay Prescher
Marietta College’s Ban Johnson Arena is set to host one of the four 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship “Sweet 16” brackets. Fenton Court is primed and ready for more exciting college basketball this weekend. It’s “March Madness” at “The BanJo”.
At 4:00 pm on Friday afternoon, the Christopher Newport Captains will play the Stockton University Ospreys.
In the nightcap, tip-off at 7:00 pm on Friday, the Marietta College Pioneers will battle the Oswego State University Lakers.
Friday’s winners will advance to the 2022 NCAA Division III “Elite 8”. That Sectional Final will tip-off at 7:00 pm on Saturday night. The winner of that game earns the right to travel to Fort Wayne, Indiana, for the 2022 NCAA Division III “Final Four”. Let’s look at how the Pioneers can take one more step towards realizing their ultimate goal.
Tickets for “Sweet 16” games at Ban Johnson Arena can be purchased through the Marietta College Online Ticket Platform.
What the Pioneers Need to Do to Advance
• Fire on All Cylinders: The Marietta College Pioneers possess a unique quality. The 2021-2022 Pioneers aren’t built around just one or two elite players who can take over a basketball game. Head coach Jon VanderWal has multiple weapons he can turn to in crunch time. Marietta has four outstanding seniors in their starting five. Each one has the ability to dominate. Even players on Marietta’s second unit have taken control of games. But Marietta’s lead guns have yet to launch an all-out, total team scoring assault.
Jason Ellis, Lukas Isaly, Mason Lydic, and Tim Kreeger have taken turns totally dominating portions of or even entire games. If the Pioneers ever fire on all cylinders, good luck trying to keep up. There have been glimpses of a team that has this potential. Firing on all cylinders, Marietta can overwhelm any opponent on any given night. Beginning with Friday’s Sweet 16 game against Oswego, now would be perfect timing.
• Take Care of the Basketball: When it comes to taking care of the basketball, Marietta is one of the best small-college basketball teams in the country. In Friday’s game, this will be imperative. The Lakers have the fifth-best scoring defense in Division III men’s basketball. The Pioneers must work to take advantage of every offensive opportunity.
Marietta must take care of the basketball in order to accomplish this. Oswego State’s defense is ranked 87th overall in forcing turnovers. The Lakers cause an average of 15.83 turnovers per game (TPG). In contrast, the Pioneers average only (8.4 TPG). Marietta is statistically the best team in the country at taking care of the basketball.
On defense, the Pioneers are 167th in Division III at forcing turnovers at (14.45 TPG). But comparing Marietta and Oswego only on the number of forced turnovers they cause doesn’t show the complete picture. Taking care of the basketball will be critical in Friday’s game. When comparing the game-to-game “turnover margin”, the two teams are very close. Both are exceptionally good at winning the turnover margin.
Marietta has the 10th best turnover margin in Division III, and Oswego State is ranked 15th. But there’s another part to this statistic. How do these two teams produce turnovers? Oswego State is the 33rd best basketball stealing team in Division III. The Lakers swipe the rock at a rate of 9.7 steals per game (SPG). Marietta College is 92nd overall, with an average of 8.4 takeaways per game.
That’s not a huge disparity. But watching game film, there is a difference. The Pioneers play a smothering style of defense. Marietta works to force teams into taking bad shots. The Pioneers’ defensive strategy is more than just trying to steal the ball. It’s simple; force low-percentage shots, box out, and then grab the rebound.
But the Lakers’ mindset is different. Oswego uses a more aggressive defensive strategy to force mistakes. Hoping to swipe an errant pass, the Lakers have a tendency to overplay passing lanes. If Marietta plays under control, they can take advantage of this.
Both teams hope to avoid mistakes. The Pioneers can avoid unnecessary and costly mistakes, if they take care of the basketball. This has been the trademark of the Marietta College team all season. There is no reason to think it will not continue. Next, the Pioneers must look to capitalize on the Lakers’ mistakes.
• Capitalize on Mistakes: Now let’s look at another statistic. It’s one that relates very closely to how well a team takes care of the basketball. How well do Marietta and Oswego capitalize on the mistakes they cause? There isn’t an NCAA team statistical category to grade this critical part of a basketball game. However, “Points off Turnovers” is listed under the “Play Analysis” link in virtually every box score. There are other important team statistics. But the difference in the number of points scored off of turnovers can have an uncanny reflection on the final score.
When a team turns the ball over, it can trigger anywhere from a four-to-six-point swing in a matter of seconds. Forcing a turnover, and then scoring points off it, can build on momentum or steal momentum back. First, let’s compare each of the Pioneers’ and the Lakers’ last three games. These were the conference tournament championships and the opening two rounds of the NCAA tournament.
In the Mount Union win, Marietta won the turnover battle. The Pioneers forced 12 and committed 11 turnovers. However, Marietta scored 12 points off of the Purple Raiders’ mistakes but gave up only 7 points off of their own turnovers. In the first NCAA game against Medaille, the Pioneers had an uncharacteristically more difficult time protecting the ball. Marietta committed 14 turnovers and forced the Mavericks into 16.
But again, Marietta did more with the turnovers they forced. The Pioneers outscored Medaille 21 to 13 in points off turnovers. In the second round game against Rochester, this stat was one HUGE difference in the outcome. The YellowJackets turned the ball over 12 times. Marietta did a far better job protecting the basketball in this game, committing only nine turnovers.
But the big stat, again, was the difference in who capitalized on mistakes. Marietta scored 13 points on turnovers to Rochester’s four. This included a critical 3 to 0 advantage in overtime. Marietta’s ability to capitalize on mistakes against Rochester was extremely instrumental in the final outcome.
Looking at the Lakers, in the SUNYAC tournament final, Oswego scored fewer points off turnovers than Oneonta did. Oneonta had a 12 to 10 advantage. However, the Lakers jumped out to an early double-digit lead and basically cruised to a 21-point victory. In Oswego’s two NCAA games, the story is different. In their first game against Hood, the Lakers forced the Blazers into 14 turnovers. The next night, against Keane State, Oswego forced the Owls into 17 turnovers.
In contrast, the Lakers turned the ball over 15 times on Friday night and another 16 times against Keane State on Saturday. Oswego can be prone to making mistakes. However, like the Pioneers, the Lakers dominated in terms of the number of points they scored off of turnovers. Oswego outscored Hood College 23 to 8 and Keane State 18 to 7 in points off turnovers. This statistic, just like in Marietta’s win over Rochester, was a big difference in the game.
One thing is obvious. Taking care of the basketball and capitalizing on mistakes will be critical in Friday’s game. The Marietta College Pioneers are one of the best teams in the country at doing this. If they can do it again against the Lakers, Marietta will gain another big advantage.
• An Efficient and Effective Bench: The Pioneers’ second unit has been hugely instrumental in Marietta’s success this season. However, the bench hasn’t been as effective in recent games. One reason, Sahmi Willoughby, a major contributor off the bench all season, only played two minutes against Medaille.
Nevertheless, in the OAC title game, Mount Union’s reserve unit still outscored the Pioneers’ reserves 28 to 14. In the first NCAA tournament game, Medaille’s bench outproduced Marietta’s bench 37 to 20. In both of these games, this difference created closer games than they may have otherwise been.
Upon Willoughby’s return against Rochester, the Pioneers won the battle of the benches. Marietta’s second line outscored the YellowJackets 22 to 14. Along with Lukas Isaly’s phenomenal second half, the Marietta bench was instrumental in winning an overtime thriller.
In contrast, Oswego’s reserves outscored both Hood College and Keane State in the Lakers’ first two NCAA wins. The bench outscored Hood 23-11 and Keane State 24-15. The Pioneers rely heavily on their lead unit for the bulk of their scoring. While not part of Marietta’s starting five, Willoughby is fifth on the Pioneers in minutes played per game. We expect that to continue on Friday.
Recently, Cooper Parrott has been in a shooting slump. In the last three games, the 6’3” sophomore was just 1-9 from beyond the three-point line. Parrott is an excellent shooter. The percentages are going to balance out. This weekend would be perfect timing.
Brennen Crawford came up big against Medaille. The 6’5” junior scored nine timely points. Crawford had an assist and blocked a shot as well. Sophomore Jac Alexander wasn’t heavily involved in the OAC Final. But in the first NCAA game, he snagged four rebounds in 14 minutes.
Then, when Lukas Isaly got a second first-half foul on Saturday, Alexander stepped up his game. While the 5’10” sophomore only contributed six points on 2-8 shooting, he never let off the gas defensively. Addy Black starts for Marietta, but usually works with this second unit. Black’s timely rebounding and strong defense are a valuable weapon.
Senior Ryan Reidy has continued to be an inspirational leader on the Pioneers’ bench. Reidy played nine solid minutes against Medaille. The senior guard could prove a valuable piece against Oswego. If he can provide effective minutes off the bench, it will give the Pioneers’ first unit valuable rest.
No matter which Pioneers come off the Marietta bench as the “second-unit”, this group must be effective. Marietta’s bench plays excellent defense and helps wear opponents down. But on Friday, against the Lakers, Marietta’s reserves need to be efficient offensively. The Pioneers’ bench has come up big in big games. Friday is a big game. Who are we kidding? Friday is an enormous game. First, Marietta’s reserves must play efficiently. If they can, they’ll be an effective weapon.
• Offensive Rebounding Efficiency: Marietta and Oswego are almost identical in terms of offensive rebounds per game. The Pioneers snag 13.21 offensive rebounds per game, while the Lakers pull down 13.45 offensive boards. Taking advantage of second-chance opportunities will be another key stat line in Friday’s game. If the Pioneers can be more efficient with their offensive rebounds, it will give Marietta yet another edge.
• Avoid Unnecessary Fouls: Oswego ranks 87th in the country for the fewest fouls per game (15.2 FPG). Only once all season has a Lakers player fouled out. In contrast, Marietta College is ranked 200th in the country in total fouls. Five Pioneers were disqualified with their fifth foul. The Pioneers had 516 fouls called on them thus far in 2021-2022. That’s an average of nearly 18 personal fouls per game. Now, anyone who has watched many Ohio Athletic Conference men’s basketball games will appreciate the obvious.
OAC officiating crews have an unusually high propensity for being “whistle-happy”. Sometimes, it wasn’t pleasant to watch. Partly because of this, the bulk of the OAC men’s basketball teams rank in the bottom half of the country for how many total personal fouls were called on them. This heavy number of total team fouls points to two things. The OAC is a very physical conference, which it is. But also, there were a lot of unnecessary whistles blown, which there were.
But the officiating crew working on Friday night will not be from the OAC. Nevertheless, we can expect a physical game. Fouls will be whistled against both teams. Total fouls in a game usually balance out. One key is to avoid the senseless, unnecessary fouls. The team that does this the best on Friday will gain another big advantage.
On Friday night, the #2 nationally ranked Marietta College Pioneers seek to take another step towards their ultimate goal. In the Pioneers’ way, stands an excellent basketball team. Oswego State is talented and disciplined.
It will take a complete team effort to defeat the Lakers. However, the Marietta College Pioneers are a good basketball team as well, a very good team. They are talented enough to accomplish their ultimate goal.
To do it, the Pioneers must protect the basketball, play efficiently, and get effective production from their talented bench. If they accomplish these things, Marietta will be playing on Saturday night. It’s one game at a time. Often, in the middle of March Madness, it is one minute at a time.
The better team on Friday night will advance to the 2022 NCAA Division III “Elite 8”. In big games, “Legends Rise”. The Pioneers have a core unit of outstanding seniors who want to leave a mark on the Marietta College basketball program. They have their chance.
It’s all really quite simple, actually. But the stakes are still extremely high. The pressure will be intense. The key is to play under control and seize every moment. If Marietta does this, there will be a “Sweet” celebration on Friday night at Fenton Court.
The Word Jester is not employed by Marietta College, and is not affiliated with the Ohio Athletic Conference or D3 Hoops.com
The opinions expressed in this article are the exclusive viewpoints of the author.
They do not reflect the points of view, policies, or principles of any outside agency or organization.
